What 225 Incrementality Tests Reveal About Your Paid Media Performance

Our tech partner Stella just released their annual incrementality report, and the findings should fundamentally shift how you think about channel performance.

This isn't just another analytics report. This is data from 225 geo holdout incrementality tests run on Shopify stores across America, with 84% reaching statistical significance.

Before we dive in, there's an important caveat: Stella acknowledges that brands running incrementality tests through their platform are likely more sophisticated than the average DTC advertiser. This means the results might be 15-25% better than what the industry at large would see.

With that context, let's look at what the data actually reveals.

👉🏼 [YouTube Explainer] - Part 1: Stella's Incrementality Results by Channel

The Channel Performance Rankings That Might Surprise You

The report breaks down incremental ROAS by channel, and the rankings are fascinating.

The overall median incremental return across all tests? 2.31x.

But here's where it gets interesting when you look at the channel-by-channel breakdown:

Top Performers:

• Connected TV leads the pack with the highest incremental ROAS
• Performance Max follows very closely behind
• Pinterest and Meta cluster together in a tight range just below PMax

The Middle Tier:

• YouTube outperforms both standard Shopping and non-branded Search
• Standard Shopping sits in the middle of the pack
• Non-branded Search performs worse than Shopping

The Laggards:

• TikTok shows extremely low incrementality scores

What This Data Actually Tells Us

Performance Max vs. Standard Shopping

The gap between PMax and standard Shopping campaigns is significant. If you're still running legacy Shopping campaigns instead of migrating to Performance Max, this data suggests you're leaving incremental revenue on the table.

The Pinterest Opportunity

Pinterest shows strong results, but keep the sample size in mind. The number of studies for Pinterest is significantly lower than Meta or PMax, so while the results look favorable, they come with less statistical weight.

The TikTok Reality Check

Everyone wants to be the brand that "cracks" TikTok, but the incrementality data here is sobering. TikTok shows notably low incremental returns compared to other channels.

This doesn't mean TikTok can't work, but it does mean you need to be realistic about what you're likely to achieve. Chasing the next hot channel without understanding its incremental contribution can destroy your unit economics.

YouTube's Underrated Performance

YouTube outperforming both standard Shopping and non-branded Search is notable. Video advertising on YouTube appears to be driving more truly incremental conversions than many operators realize.

The Most Important Question: Can Your Business Even Support Paid Media?

Here's the reality check buried in this report that most people will miss:

If your unit economics cannot support a 2.31x return on ad spend, you have a fundamental viability problem with paid media as a growth channel.

Before you launch a new channel, before you increase budget, before you test anything, ask yourself this question: Can your business sustain a 2.31x return?

If the answer is no, you don't have a channel selection problem. You don't have a creative problem. You don't have a targeting problem.

You have a unit economics problem that needs to be solved before you spend another dollar on paid acquisition.

What This Means for Your Media Strategy

This data should inform three critical decisions:

1. Channel Prioritization Stop chasing what's trendy. Start prioritizing channels that show the strongest incremental returns for businesses like yours. Connected TV, PMax, and Meta should probably be getting more of your budget than they currently are.

2. Migration Planning If you're still running standard Shopping campaigns, the data suggests it's time to migrate to Performance Max. The incremental lift appears to be real.

3. Reality Checks on New Channels Before you launch TikTok (or any new channel), understand that the median incrementality might be significantly lower than what you're seeing from your existing channels. Budget accordingly.

The Bottom Line

Incrementality testing reveals what's actually working versus what's just taking credit for sales that would have happened anyway.

The brands that win are the ones who:

• Understand their true incremental ROAS by channel
• Make decisions based on incrementality, not attributed metrics
• Have unit economics that can actually support paid media at scale
• Prioritize channels with proven incremental returns over trendy platforms

This Stella report is one of the most comprehensive looks we have at what's actually driving incremental revenue across DTC brands. Use it to benchmark your own performance and make smarter allocation decisions.

Because at the end of the day, it doesn't matter what Meta or Google tells you your ROAS is. What matters is how much incremental revenue you're actually generating.

Want to run your own incrementality tests or need help analyzing your channel performance? We work with Stella and other testing platforms to give our clients true visibility into what's working. Send us a message.